Monte-Carlo analysis of the projectile fragments from cylindrical tank boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion accident
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摘要: 在动力学分析的基础上,将二维体系内的碎片轨迹方程扩展到三维体系内,将风这一影响因素考 虑在内。以墨西哥事故中水平圆柱储罐发生沸腾液体扩展为蒸气云爆炸(BLEVE)为例,利用Monte-Carlo法 模拟出碎片的轨迹曲线,计算得到有风和无风情况下碎片抛射距离的概率分布,得到一般情况下风对碎片危 害的影响较小。计算了无风情况下碎片碰撞目标容器的概率,得到碰撞概率随罐间距的增大而呈现严格的指 数衰减趋势,通过此关系式可以计算出符合安全要求的罐间距。研究结果对于提高储罐的安全性、缓解和控 制碎片产生的风险具有一定的指导意义。
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关键词:
- 爆炸力学 /
- 沸腾液体扩展为蒸气云爆炸 /
- Monte-Carlo法 /
- 碎片 /
- 柱形罐
Abstract: Thegenerationandflightoffragmentsarestochasticandcancausemoreseverehazards. Studyingonthedominoeffectstudycausedbythefragmentsfromexplosionishotspotanddifficulty. Basedondynamicanalysis,thepresentworkextendedthetwo-dimensionalfragmenttrajectoryequationintothree- dimensionalsystem,andtookwindintoaccount.ThepresentanalysistookacylindricaltankinMexicoCitywithboilingliquidexpandingvaporexplosionasanexample, andthetrajectoryoffragmentwassimulatedbyMonte- Carlomethod.Seenfromtheprobabilitiesoffragmentranges tobereachedwith/withoutwind,windhaslessimpactonthehazardcausedbyfragments.Theimpactprobabilityofafragmentonatargetwithnowindwasattained, impactprobabilitywiththetank showedtheincreaseofdistancebetweenthestrictexponentialdecaytrend,andthroughthisrelationship, thetankspacingincompliancewithsafetyrequirementscanbecalculated.Thepaperprovidesa methodwhichisofgreatsignificancefortheriskassessmentandcontroloffragmentsfromtheexplosionofcylindricaltanks. -
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