圆筒试验JWL状态方程参数的贝叶斯标定

陈华; 周海兵; 刘国昭; 孙占峰; 张树道

doi:10.11883/1001-1455(2017)04-0585-06

圆筒试验JWL状态方程参数的贝叶斯标定

doi: 10.11883/1001-1455(2017)04-0585-06

1.
北京应用物理与计算数学研究所，北京 100094
2.
中国工程物理研究院流体物理研究所冲击波物理与爆轰物理实验室，四川绵阳 621999

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 11472060

国家自然科学基金项目 11671413

中国工程物理研究院科学技术发展基金项目 ZYSZ1518-13

北京应用物理与计算数学研究所所长青年基金项目 ZYSZ1518-13

详细信息

作者简介:
陈华(1979-)，女，博士，副研究员，chen_hua@iapcm.ac.cn

中图分类号: O381
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-12-30
- 修回日期: 2016-04-25
- 刊出日期: 2017-07-25

Bayesian calibration for parameters of JWL equation of state in cylinder test

1.
Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, Beijing 100094, China
2.
Laboratory for Shock Wave and Detonation Physics Research, Institute of Fluid Physics, Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621999, Sichuan, China

摘要

摘要: 在研究数值模拟的输入参数引入的不确定性时，通常需要人为给定每个输入参数的概率分布，且输入参数概率分布的选择可能会对分析结果产生直接影响。利用贝叶斯方法标定了圆筒试验JWL状态方程参数，得到了标定参数的估计值和后验分布，并研究了不同统计模型假设对标定参数的估计值和后验分布的影响。贝叶斯后验分布融合了基准试验的试验数据的信息，因此将其作为不确定度量化分析时输入参数的初始概率分布，可以尽量减少分布选择引入的认知不确定性。
- 不确定度量化 /
- 参数标定 /
- 后验概率分布 /
- 贝叶斯方法 /
- JWL状态方程 /
- 圆筒试验 /
- 高斯过程
Abstract: Since probability distributions of input parameters are usually assigned subjectively for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in numerical simulations, the selection of distributions may have significant effect on analysis results of UQ. In this paper, to calibrate more precisely the parameters of JWL equation of state in the cylinder test, we proposed to adopt Bayesian methods that provide estimators and posterior distributions of calibration parameters. Further, we investigated the effects of model assumptions on estimators and posterior distributions of calibration parameters. Our study shows that, owing to the information of cylinder tests they contain, the posterior distributions can be used as initial probability distributions of the input parameters in UQ to reduce the epistemic uncertainty.
- uncertainty quantification /
- calibration /
- posterior distribution /
- Bayesian methods /
- JWL equation of state /
- cylinder test /
- Gaussian process

HTML全文

图 1 圆筒试验的试验装置示意图

Figure 1. Device of cylinder test

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图 2 圆筒试验径向半径和时间的关系

Figure 2. Radius vs. time in cylinder test

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图 3 GP代理模型预测的结果和数值计算结果的比较

Figure 3. Comparison of predictions of the GP surrogate model with numerical simulations

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图 4 两模型的后验概率等高线和最大后验估计

Figure 4. Posterior distribution and MPE with different models

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图 5 径向半径的预测、试验和模拟结果的比较

Figure 5. Comparison of radius histories obtained by prediction, experiment and simulation

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