Confidenceintervalestimationofsecurityprobabilityofcylindricalexplosionvesse

LiuYu; HanFeng; DongNan; LuXi-cheng; LeiMing

doi:10.11883/1001-1455(2013)02-0200-07

Volume 33 Issue 2

Apr. 2014

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LiuYu, HanFeng, DongNan, LuXi-cheng, LeiMing. Confidenceintervalestimationofsecurityprobabilityofcylindricalexplosionvesse[J]. Explosion And Shock Waves, 2013, 33(2): 200-206. doi: 10.11883/1001-1455(2013)02-0200-07

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LiuYu, HanFeng, DongNan, LuXi-cheng, LeiMing. Confidenceintervalestimationofsecurityprobabilityofcylindricalexplosionvesse[J]. Explosion And Shock Waves, 2013, 33(2): 200-206. doi: 10.11883/1001-1455(2013)02-0200-07

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Confidenceintervalestimationofsecurityprobabilityofcylindricalexplosionvesse

doi: 10.11883/1001-1455(2013)02-0200-07

1.
NorthwestInstituteof NuclearTechnology,Xi’an710024,Shaanxi,China

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Corresponding author: LiuYu
Publish Date: 2013-03-25

Abstract

Abstract

Aimedtothesecurityestimationofcylindricalexplosionvessels,theradialdistortionatthe centersectionofthevesselwasnumericallycalculated.Whentheinitialparametersaresetwithrandomerrors, thefinalsimulationresultschangeobviously.Someessentialparametersaresampledby theMonte-Carlomethod,sothattheuncertaintyoftheseparameterscanbeconsideredinthecalculationprocess, andtheresultsactuallyarethesamplesoftheradialdistortionofthevessel.Basedon thestatisticalanalysisofthesamples,theconfidenceintervalestimationmethodforthesecurityprobabilityofcylindricalexplosionvesselswasproposed. Thevalidityandaccuracyofthemethodwerealsoillustratedbyexamples.
- mechanicsofexplosion,
- securityprobability,
- Monte-Carlomethod,
- cylindricalvessel,
- radialdistortion,
- intervalestimation

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