Promotion of prediction ability of impact limit equationon honeycomb sandwich panel

Impact limit equations of honeycomb sandwich panel are the key of risk assessment of the spacecraft's impact from space debris. At present, the indicators of prediction ability mainly are the rate of correctly prediction (including the total rate and the safe rate) based on the prediction probability, and prediction error (including the absolute error and the relative error) based on the deviation of diameter predicted. In order to improve the prediction ability of equations, the variation of each predictive indicator in coefficient space of the equations was described based on 131 experimental data of honeycomb sandwich panel from the literature. And hierarchical analysis was used to investigate the promotion of prediction indicators of the equations. The results show that, equation optimization lead to accurately optimization of indicators of prediction probability, quickly optimization of prediction error. The total rate of correctly prediction can be used in the study of spacecraft's in-orbit protective properties as the primary indicator, and the safe rate of correctly prediction can be used in the security evaluation of design as the primary indicator. The prediction ability of the optimized equation has been greatly enhanced compared with the original equation.