变权靶心贴近度在岩爆烈度预测中的应用

刘磊磊; 张绍和; 王晓密; 郝志斌

doi:10.11883/1001-1455(2015)01-0043-08

变权靶心贴近度在岩爆烈度预测中的应用

doi: 10.11883/1001-1455(2015)01-0043-08

刘磊磊^{1, 2},
张绍和^{1, 2, ,},
王晓密²,
郝志斌^{1, 2}

1.
中南大学有色金属成矿预测教育部重点实验室，湖南长沙 410083
2.
中南大学地球科学与信息物理学院，湖南长沙 410083

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(51074180)

详细信息

作者简介:
刘磊磊(1987—), 男, 硕士研究生

通讯作者:
张绍和, 452041789@qq.com

中图分类号: O382; TU457
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-05-03
- 修回日期: 2013-07-31
- 刊出日期: 2015-01-25

Application of target approaching with variable weight in prediction of rockburst intensity

Liu Lei-lei^{1, 2},
Zhang Shao-he^{1, 2
, ,},
Wang Xiao-mi²,
Hao Zhi-bin^{1, 2}

1.
Key Laboratory of Metallogenic Prediction of Nonferrous MetalsMinistry of Education, Central South University, Changsha 410083, Hunan, China
2.
School of Geosciences and Info-Physics, Central South University, Changsha 410083, Hunan, China

摘要

摘要: 针对岩爆烈度预测的不确定性和影响岩爆发生的各单个指标间互不相容的问题，将变权理论和靶心贴近度相结合，进行岩爆烈度预测。首先，该方法在考虑评判者偏好度的基础上，引入了一种均衡函数，给出了一种变权模式，用来计算各个指标的权重；然后，该方法构造了一种区间关联函数，将单指标关联函数的最大值作为靶心坐标，根据样本与靶心的贴近度来预测岩爆烈度，即靶心贴近度值越大，则岩爆烈度越接近该贴近度所对应的岩爆烈度等级；最后，将该方法应用于灵宝东峪矿区、冬瓜山铜矿和秦岭隧道岩爆预测等实例中，结果表明：该方法不仅可以准确、合理地预测岩爆烈度，而且相比其他方法，该方法不需要任何先验知识，使用起来更直接、更方便。
- 爆炸力学 /
- 靶心贴近度 /
- 层次分析法 /
- 烈度预测 /
- 岩爆 /
- 关联函数 /
- 变权
Abstract: According to the uncertainty of rock burst intensity prediction and the incompatible problem of the single index which mainly influences the rock burst, a method combining variable weight theory with the degree of target approaching is proposed to make prediction of rock burst intensity. First, considering the preference degree of the judge, a variable weight model is given to calculate the weights of indexes based on a balance function. Second, this method constructs an interval incidence function, and the maximum value of incidence function for single index is used to be the target, so the rock burst intensity can be predicted based on the degree of approaching between samples and targets-the larger degree of the target approaching, the higher intensity of the rock burst. Finally, this method is applied to Dongyu rock mine in Lingbao, Dongguashan rock mine and Qinling Tunnel rock burst, and the results show that it can predict the rock burst intensity correctly and reasonably. What's more, compared with other methods like Bayes discriminant analysis method and distance discriminant analysis method(DDA), it doesn't need any prior knowledge, and so is very direct and convenient for calculation. Therefore, this method is worthy of promotion and application.
- mechanics of explosion /
- target approaching /
- AHP /
- prediction of intensity /
- rockburst /
- incidence function /
- variable weight

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图 1 计算流程图

Figure 1. Calculation flow chart

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表 1 岩爆烈度与各主控因子之间的关系

Table 1. Relations between intensity of rockburst and main control factors

岩爆烈度	σ_θ/σ_c	σ_c/σ_t	w_et
无岩爆(Ⅰ级)	< 0.3	>40.0	< 2.0
轻微岩爆(Ⅱ级)	0.3~0.5	26.7~40.0	2.0~3.5
中等岩爆(Ⅲ级)	0.5~0.7	14.5~26.7	3.5~5.0
强岩爆(Ⅳ级)	>0.7	< 14.5	>5.0

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表 2 标度意义表

Table 2. Scale significance

标度b_ij	1	3	5	7	9	2, 4, 6, 8
i与j比较	同等重要	i稍微重要	i比较重要	i非常重要	i极其重要	重要性介于上述中间

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表 3 平均随机一致性指标

Table 3. Average random consistency scale

n	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
R_i	0.52	0.89	1.12	1.26	1.36	1.41	1.46	1.49	1.52	1.54	1.56	1.58

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表 4 灵宝东峪矿区岩爆参数

Table 4. Parameters of rockburst for Dongyu rock mine in Lingbao

工程名称	σ_θ/σ_c	σ_c/σ_t	w_et	实际岩爆烈度
SM 6200段	0.542	12.2	4.89	中等岩爆(Ⅲ级)
SM 4740段	0.409	30.7	7.30	轻微岩爆(Ⅱ级)
SM 4320段	0.461	29.8	5.30	轻微岩爆(Ⅱ级)

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表 5 灵宝东峪矿区岩爆参数变权及靶心

Table 5. Variable weight and target of parameters of rockburst for Dongyu rock mine in Lingbao

工程名称	σ_θ/σ_c	σ_c/σ_t	w_et	靶心坐标
SM 6200段	0.399	0.430	0.170	(0.423，0.628，0.148)
SM 4740段	0.597	0.240	0.163	(0.910，0.603，0.161)
SM 4320段	0.552	0.248	0.200	(0.387，0.460，0.244)

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表 6 灵宝东峪矿区岩爆烈度预测结果

Table 6. Prediction results of rockburst intensity for Dongyu rock mine in Lingbao

工程名称	靶心贴近度				预测岩爆烈度		实际岩爆烈度
工程名称	Ⅰ级岩爆	Ⅱ级岩爆	Ⅲ级岩爆	Ⅳ级岩爆	本文方法	Bayes法	实际岩爆烈度
SM 6200段	-2.932	-0.887	0.570	0.432	Ⅲ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅲ级
SM 4740段	-2.527	0.150	-0.916	-1.759	Ⅱ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅱ级
SM 4320段	-2.133	0.472	0.204	-1.130	Ⅱ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅱ级

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表 7 冬瓜山矿区岩爆参数

Table 7. Parameters of rockburst for Dongguashan rock mine

岩石种类	σ_θ/σ_c	σ_c/σ_t	w_et	实际岩爆烈度
矽卡岩	0.554	11.1	3.97	中等岩爆(Ⅲ级)

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表 8 冬瓜山矿区岩爆参数变权及靶心

Table 8. Variable weight and target of parameters of rockburst for Dongguashan rock mine

岩石种类	σ_θ/σ_c	σ_c/σ_t	w_et	靶心坐标
矽卡岩	0.366	0.453	0.181	(0.541，0.934，0.626)

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表 9 冬瓜山矿区岩爆烈度预测结果

Table 9. Prediction results of rockburst intensity for Dongguashan rock mine

岩石种类	靶心贴近度				预测岩爆烈度		实际岩爆烈度
岩石种类	Ⅰ级岩爆	Ⅱ级岩爆	Ⅲ级岩爆	Ⅳ级岩爆	本文方法	DDA法	实际岩爆烈度
矽卡岩	-2.993	-1.109	0.327	0.235	Ⅲ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅲ级

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表 10 秦岭隧道岩爆实测数据^[16]

Table 10. Measured data of rockburst for Qinling tunnel^[16]

编号	σ_θ/σ_c	σ_c/σ_t	w_et	实际岩爆烈度
1	0.43	14	7.44	中等岩爆(Ⅲ级)
2	0.41	15	7.08	中等岩爆(Ⅲ级)
3	0.55	15	6.43	中等岩爆(Ⅲ级)

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表 11 秦岭隧道岩爆参数变权及靶心

Table 11. Variable weight and target of parameters of rockburst for Qinling tunnel

编号	σ_θ/σ_c	σ_c/σ_t	w_et	靶心坐标
1	0.485	0.378	0.137	(0.703，0.131，0.047)
2	0.505	0.354	0.141	(0.901，0.086，0.338)
3	0.448	0.389	0.163	(0.495，0.086，0.857)

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表 12 秦岭隧道岩爆烈度预测结果

Table 12. Prediction results of rockburst intensity for Qinling tunnel

编号	靶心贴近度				预测岩爆烈度		实际岩爆烈度
编号	Ⅰ级岩爆	Ⅱ级岩爆	Ⅲ级岩爆	Ⅳ级岩爆	本文方法	DDA法	实际岩爆烈度
1	-2.698	-0.493	-0.213	-0.091	Ⅳ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅲ级
2	-2.576	-0.368	-0.347	-0.373	Ⅲ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅲ级
3	-3.295	-0.937	0.548	0.303	Ⅲ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅲ级

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