Prediction of gas explosion consequences in residential buildings based on artificial neural network
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摘要: 针对居民燃气爆炸事故灾害演化呈高度非线性、其后果难以精准预测问题,本文开展了数据驱动下的燃气爆炸后果预测研究。提出了一种基于人工神经网络的爆炸事故后果预测方法,借助大规模数值仿真,生成了涵盖多种居民户型的燃气爆炸后果数据集,通过敏感性分析和准确性验证,最终建立了燃气爆炸后果智能预测模型,其对室内最大爆炸超压和温度的预测误差分别低于15%和5%,空间位置坐标最大误差在25%以内。由此实现了对不同居民户型任意点火位置下的室内最严重爆炸后果及其空间位置特征的批量预测。结果表明:随着户型面积增加和空间布局逐渐复杂化,最大超压和温度值依次增大。客厅区域始终表现为最低超压水平,而未设窗口的卧室墙体附近则易形成超压与温度的极值区域。厨房和卧室点火可分别导致室内产生最严重的超压和温度后果,反映出点火位置对爆炸后果的差异化影响规律。研究结论为进一步扩大人工智能在气体爆炸领域中的预测应用以及对爆炸事故灾害的高效防控提供了重要参考。
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关键词:
Abstract: This paper conducted data-driven research on predicting the consequences of residential gas explosion accidents, addressing the challenge posed by the highly nonlinear nature of disaster evolution in such incidents and the difficulty in accurately predicting their outcomes. A gas explosion accident consequence prediction method based on artificial neural network was proposed. By utilizing extensive numerical simulations, a diverse gas explosion consequence dataset encompassing various residential types was created. Through sensitivity analysis and accuracy verification, an intelligent prediction model for gas explosion consequences was developed. The model demonstrated prediction errors of less than 15% for indoor maximum explosion overpressure, less than 5% for temperature, and spatial position coordinated errors of less than 25%. In this way, the batch prediction of the most severe indoor explosion consequences and their spatial location characteristics for various residential types under any ignition position was realized. The results show that as the house area expands and spatial layout complexity increases, the maximum overpressure and temperature values also rise accordingly. The living room consistently exhibits the lowest overpressure levels, while areas near bedroom walls lacking vent tend to experience extreme overpressure and temperature values. Ignition in the kitchen and bedroom can result in the most severe overpressure and temperature consequences in the respective rooms, showcasing the varying impact of ignition position on explosion outcomes. The research conclusions provide an important reference for further expanding the prediction application of artificial intelligence in the field of gas explosion and the efficient prevention and control of explosion accidents. -
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